The June numbers are out and they're the most interesting we've seen in years.
Cotality's national Home Value Index fell 0.4 percent in June 2026. That's the steepest monthly drop in three and a half years.
Before you panic or celebrate, look under the hood. Because the national number is hiding two completely different markets.
The split
Sydney fell 1.2 percent in June. Melbourne fell 1.0 percent. Both are now sitting a few percent below their November 2025 peaks, and sales volumes in Sydney are tracking about 17 percent lower than a year ago.
Meanwhile Brisbane still edged up 0.3 percent. Perth rose 0.7 percent. And nationally, values are still 7.3 percent higher than a year ago.
So "the market is falling" is true in some cities and flat out wrong in others.
Why it's happening
Three rate rises in 2026 have cut what people can borrow. Affordability was already stretched. And the May budget's investor tax changes pulled a chunk of demand out of the established market.
At the same time, listings in Sydney and Melbourne have climbed above average. More stock, fewer buyers. That's the recipe for a buyers' market.
What this actually means if you're buying
Here's the part most people get wrong. A softening market doesn't automatically mean you'll get a bargain.
It means leverage has shifted, if you know how to use it. Vendors who bought at the peak are anchored to prices that no longer exist. Some will hold out for months. Others are quietly motivated and will meet the market this week.
Telling those two apart is the whole game. Days on market, previous listing history, why they're selling. That's information a local buyer's agent has, and it's exactly what stops you overpaying in a market like this.
The other trap is the falling knife problem. In a soft market, the worst properties get discounted hardest, and they look like bargains. Buying a compromised property cheap is still buying a compromised property.
The window
Soft markets reward prepared buyers who move decisively on quality stock. They punish hesitant buyers and bargain hunters chasing the bottom.
If you're buying in the next six months, this is the best negotiating environment in years, provided someone on your side actually knows what things are worth right now, not what they were worth in November.
Converta matches you with a vetted buyer's agent who specialises in your target market and budget. Free, no obligation, and your match calls within 24 hours.
Source: Cotality Home Value Index, June 2026.