Caboolture and Morayfield are no longer the cheap end of Moreton Bay. A house in either suburb now costs roughly $880,000 to $900,000, depending on whose numbers you read. That is still under $1m, but it changes your stamp duty, your loan, and where along the line your budget still works.
This is a Queensland piece. Victorian duty and grant rules are different, so none of the duty maths below applies to Melbourne. It is general information only, not financial advice.
Which number is the real one?
Published medians disagree, because each source uses a different method and period. So I'll name the source every time.
- PRD put Caboolture's house median at $902,500 for Q1 2026, up 17.2% over the year, with a unit median of $632,000.
- Cotality data for the 12 months to June 2026 has Caboolture (4510) at $882,000 for houses, up from $750,000 in June 2025, from 572 house sales.
- A 2026 suburb profile in Your Investment Property Mag has Morayfield (4506) at about $903,108 for houses, up 20.41% over 12 months, from 567 sales. That page is undated and I'd treat it as indicative only.
Don't mix these in one comparison. What they agree on is the direction: a house in either suburb has moved up sharply and now sits in the upper part of an under-$1m budget.
What the duty thresholds do to your options
Queensland's first-home concession on established homes gives you no transfer duty at $700,000 or less. It tapers away and is gone by $800,000. The maximum saving is $24,525. For eligible first-home buyers of a new home or vacant land, duty is nil with no value cap. From 1 August 2026, claimants must also be Australian citizens, permanent residents or specified foreign retirees.
Here is where Caboolture's stock sits against those lines (Cotality, 12 months to June 2026):
| Stock | Median | Gross yield | Against the thresholds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Caboolture house | $882,000 | 3.69% | Above $800,000, so no concession |
| Caboolture South house | $804,500 | not sourced | Right on the edge of the line |
| Caboolture unit | $546,000 | 4.37% | Below $700,000, full concession if eligible |
A median is the middle of a range, so some Caboolture South houses will sell either side of $800,000. Check each contract price, not the suburb average.
To see how fast the concession shrinks, take a $750,000 established home. Duty is $26,775 for an investor and $19,600 for an owner-occupier using the home concession. For an eligible first-home buyer it is $10,925. An eligible first-home buyer of a new home pays nothing. Those figures come from a lender's reference page, so run your own contract price through the stamp duty calculator, and see Stamp Duty in 2026 for the wider picture.
The $30,000 First Home Owner Grant is for eligible new homes valued under $750,000. It does not apply to established homes. The first home buyer grant checker will tell you where you stand, and this piece on stacking the grant and concessions goes further.
Rates and a falling market
The RBA lifted the cash rate to 4.60% on 29 September 2026. It was the fourth hike this year and the highest rate since November 2011. The next decision is on 3 November. Before you fall in love with a $880,000 house, put the repayment through the mortgage repayment calculator and check your borrowing power at current rates. Your borrowing power dropped this year explains why the number may be lower than you remember.
Greater Brisbane dwelling values fell 1.5% in September and 4.7% over the quarter, according to Cotality. They are still up 5.9% over 12 months, at a median of $1,048,880. Brisbane was the sharpest monthly faller among the capitals. Cotality's September index doesn't yet fully reflect the late-September hike.
Capital city homes now take a median of 39 days to sell, against 23 a year earlier. Caboolture homes typically took 16 days to sell in the year to June, and the Morayfield profile shows an average of 14. Those are different periods and different measures, so they don't tell you what the street you're looking at is doing today. Sold prices and days on market for the last few weeks, on comparable homes near the one you want, will tell you more than any median.
For how a softer market changes your bargaining position, see Home Prices Just Fell for the First Time in 3.5 Years.
Suburb by suburb
Caboolture, near the station. This is the premium pocket, and the one most likely to push you past $800,000. The rent on a median house is about $630 a week (Cotality, asking rents), which is the gross yield of 3.69% in the table. PRD had the house gross yield at 3.6% in March 2026, against 3.3% for the Moreton Bay LGA and 3.0% for Brisbane Metro. That is a better yield than Brisbane, but not a reason on its own to pay up.
Caboolture South. The house median is $804,500 against $882,000 for Caboolture proper. A price gap that size is worth investigating, not assuming. Walk the distance to the station. Check flood overlays on the individual lot, which vary street by street. Check school catchments against the exact address. Sometimes the gap is fair compensation for a real disadvantage. Sometimes it's a bargain. You can only tell by looking at specific properties.
Morayfield. The indicative profile has houses at about $903,108 with rent of $650 a week (3.57% gross yield), and units at $653,750 with rent of $530 (4.23%). Given the inconsistency between Morayfield sources, confirm the current median against recent sales before you set a budget.
Units and townhouses. At $546,000 in Caboolture on Cotality's figures, a unit is the one option clearly inside the first-home concession. The trade-off is body corporate costs and a smaller land component. Have a conveyancer or solicitor read the body corporate records before you sign.
New house-and-land (Waraba, Lilywood). For an eligible first-home buyer, a new home means no duty at any price, and the grant if the price is under $750,000. Lilywood Landings is the first estate with residents. Check the contract price against the $750,000 grant limit, and ask what is actually built and what is still a plan. Weighing up a new build more generally? New Builds Just Became the Tax-Favoured Asset. Should You Actually Buy One? covers it.
Reading the infrastructure promises
The Waraba Priority Development Area (formerly Caboolture West) covers about 2,900 hectares and was declared on 2 August 2024. The state's long-term plan for the wider Caboolture West area is about 30,000 homes for about 70,000 people over 40 years. Economic Development Queensland's current planning cites about 25,000 homes and 65,000 residents. Its infrastructure fund should support about 16,845 homes by mid-2034, including 6,738 for first-home buyers.
Two of those numbers describe the same place and still differ, which tells you how much of this is projection. Waraba also has no planned rail line, so don't buy there on the assumption of a new station. The first state school has no confirmed opening date. If a school matters to you, ask for a confirmed date in writing.
The Beerburrum to Nambour Rail Upgrade covers about 40km of the North Coast Line, and a duplication study is listed. A study is not construction. It sits north of Caboolture and doesn't change your daily commute from either station. For Cross River Rail, I wouldn't pay a premium for uplift that hasn't happened. TransLink also notes reduced train timetables from 5 May 2026, so check the current timetable and run the journey planner for your actual trip before you quote a commute time to yourself.
None of these projects is a promise of price growth along the line.
Where you may not need a buyer's agent
If you're buying new from a builder or developer, or a straightforward unit, you may not need one. The price is largely set, there is little negotiation, and your main protection is a good solicitor or conveyancer and an inspection. I'd say the same of most simple purchases under this budget where you have time and the stock is easy to read. Buyer's agent vs DIY: where the hours actually go breaks down where the effort sits.
Where one earns their keep
The harder job is established houses near the stations, in a market that is falling while sellers still remember last year's prices. Sorting the pockets, the stock and the flood and catchment questions, then negotiating against a selling agent who does this daily, is where experience matters. So is judging which infrastructure claims are funded and which are a plan. Is a Buyer's Agent Worth It? gives the honest version.
If you want to talk to one, Converta can match you with a licensed buyer's agent who works the Moreton Bay area. Your details are only shared with the agents matched to your enquiry, and you can speak to more than one. Start at our matching page.
If you're looking at investing, treat the yields above as gross: they ignore rates, insurance and maintenance. How to Calculate Rental Yield Properly and the rental yield calculator will get you closer to a real number.
Looking further out? Logan and Beaudesert and Ipswich under $700k sit on other corridors.